Sports betting’s unpredictability is again in the spotlight as Flutter Entertainment, the parent company of FanDuel and Paddy Power, slashed its 2024 U.S. revenue projections. A hot run of wins for favourite NFL teams during the late season left sportsbooks shivering in the winter gloom. Between mid-November and December 2024, a surge of favourable outcomes for bettors led to a $438 million (£354.78 million/€407.34 million) hit to gross gaming revenue (GGR) and a $260 million (£210.6 million/€241.8 million) reduction in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA).

According to the Financial Times, Flutter said that the 2024-25 NFL season is the most “customer friendly” since the launch of online sports betting. SiGMA News recently reported that the 2025 sports calendar offers an amazing sports spectacle and a range of punts, prizes, and betting surprises. This announcement arrives just in time for the NFL Wild Card rounds, a notorious time for tight matchups, unpredictability, and a swell in betting activity.

A perfect storm of predictable wins

Following a SiGMA News report about an NFL week 5 wild weekend for bettors, a streak of wins late-season by NFL favourite teams created a “perfect storm” for bettors. San Francisco 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles romped to emphatic victories in high-profile games. Chiefs’ week 13 win against the Buffalo Bills is a prime example of how it reaped the rewards for prop bettors looking at passing yards and receiving yards. The Chiefs followed this up in week 15 by dismantling the Denver Broncos, with prop bets delivering notable returns, particularly on Isiah Pacheco rushing for 100+ yards and scoring two touchdowns.

Another big bookmaker loss came when the Detroit Lions defeated the San Francisco 49ers on December 30, 2024. This cost Flutter a phenomenal $74 million (£59.94 million/€68.82 million) because they struggled to offset payouts, particularly on parlays. Parlay bets combine multiple wagers into a single high-risk, high-reward bet. In Europe, parlays are called accas, and bookmakers usually offer safety nets (acca insurance) so if one team lets a punter down, the bookies offer all or part of the stake back. Another way to entice punters is to offer acca boosts. When some of these bets win, they win big.

One of the largest acca wins comes from Malta, where William Hill was taken to the cleaners with a crazy 19-fold bet, culminating in an 87th-minute Liverpool winner (versus Chelsea) to win. In this case, an 80p ($0.98 cents/€0.91) bet won £585,000 (US$719,550/€666,900) at mega odds of 683,738/1!

Another remarkable success story is an early cash-out by a punter in 2021 at the Cheltenham Festival. Having placed a five-fold acca bet, the first four horses won, but the fifth wasn’t scheduled to be run until the following day, so the punter took a £250,000 cash out (US$307,500/€285,000), as opposed to the £511,000 maximum jackpot (US$628,530/€582,540). You can guess the rest. Yes – his fifth horse tumbled at the fourth fence, meaning he’d have lost the bet anyway, so his £5 bet at 50,000/1 odds remains a favourite early cash-out win. Flutter’s parlays, promotions and odds boosts inflate their liabilities, and for once, the bettor, on this occasion, came out on top.

Wild Card rounds are a betting bonanza

Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens kick off the exciting Wild Card weekend for the NFL on Saturday, January 11, 2025. Sunday sees the Buffalo Bills host the Denver Broncos, the Green Bay Packers visit the Philadelphia Eagles, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Washington Commanders. Monday night football sees a blockbuster with the Minnesota Vikings travelling to the Los Angeles Rams.

Wild Card games usually see shorter betting odds because casual money floods in. This gives the sharper bettors opportunities for props and promotional inflated odds, especially when casual bettors just favour the popular teams. Because of the shorter odds, prop bets drive interest. Josh Allen is an example of a player who offers a dual threat, with passing and rushing yards popular with bettors.

Weather conditions play a monumental part in betting odds and outcomes. Pittsburgh is forecast to experience a balmy 2 degrees centigrade in the sunshine, with a low of around -5. Snow in the morning may influence the team tactics to prioritise a running game instead of a short passing game. The Bill’s and Eagles’ matchups offer similar cold temperatures.

Playoffs and the big picture

A few trends may further shape the betting landscape as the Wild Card round and playoffs progress. As discussed above, public versus sharp money is one factor.

Excellent value opportunities remain in the prop bets or for the sharp bettors who lean towards underdogs. For example, the sharp bet in the Ravens vs. Steelers game would be the totals over/under rather than the outcome.

As the cream rises to the top in the NFL, betting on the championship games and Super Bowl intensifies. Can the Lions step up and take the crown, or is it a Mahomes masterclass that brings them down?

Prop bets can be more creative in the playoffs. Traditional wagers, such as touchdown scorers or receiving yards, take centre stage. Still, the more creative bets can be more fun. Examples could be the coin toss, halftime performances, total trick plays or post-touchdown celebrations!

The are set!

— NFL (@NFL)

Flutter’s challenges mirror broader industry trends

Flutter Entertainment isn’t the only operator to take a big hit. The broader sports betting industry is trying to come to terms with rising betting volumes. The NFL remains the most bet-on sport in the U.S., with record engagement, fuelled by promotions from bookmakers and increased causal punter participation.

Unpredictability plays a key role in this, too. Shocks, surprises, player injuries, and an inevitable late-season surge by an underdog can wreck operator margins. Risk management is crucial. Add the fact that Flutter and its competitors navigate operational and regulatory challenges in key markets, its promotions, odds boosts, introductory offers and cashback could be limited, which affects customer acquisition and retention.

So, what can we expect from the bookmakers? Caution and risk mitigation. The books may limit aggressive promotions, particularly during games, to reduce liabilities. Rapid shifts in betting lines will also aim to balance public and sharp money. In-play betting will be a focal point. Sportsbooks can adjust lines accordingly dynamically based on game flow and bettor behaviour.

As with Flutter’s projections, the NFL is still volatile ground for operators who face massive exposure. But this double-edged sword in the playoff rounds gives Flutter an opportunity to recover from the bettors’ winning streak. Wild Card and playoff rounds are now the business end of the season and offer thrills, unpredictability and the ultimate test to players, fan resolve, and sportsbooks alike.

This unwelcome news is counterbalanced by Flutter’s results outside the U.S. The UK and the English Premier League yielded favourable outcomes, meaning Flutter raised its estimated 2024 revenue and adjusted its EBITDA figures. On the bright side, also predicts that its core profit will double by 2027, with the U.S. accounting for almost half.

Remember, in the bright lights of the world of sports betting, the only guarantee is the thrill of the unknown.

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